Synchronous belt machinery industry future development

近些年，节能、环保、减耗成了国家可持续发展的主要方向。我国是能源大国，既是生产大国又是消耗大国。资源的高效利用已成为国家发展的重要战略。国家的发展规划对振动机械行业带来了重大的发展机会。中央政府在《国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》已明确指出要研制有重大影响的重大技术装备，其中包括大型冶金设备、大型筛分洗选设备等。振动机械主要运用于钢铁、电力等能源行业，并在交通道路行业也有广泛应用。下面我们就从主要行业的发展来预测振动机械行业的未来的市场容量，从而对振动行业未来发展有一个比较充分的了解。

In recent years, energy saving, environmental protection, reducing energy consumption has become the main direction of national sustainable development. China is a big energy, is the production of the country is a big consumption. The efficient use of resources has become an important strategy of national development. National development plan has brought significant development opportunities for vibration machinery industry. The central government in the "national economic and social development Eleventh Five Year Plan" has been clearly pointed out the need to develop a major technical equipment major impacts, including large metallurgical equipment, large screen washing equipment etc.. Mechanical vibration is mainly used in iron and steel, electric power and other energy industries, and is also widely used in the transportation industry. We have the following main industry development to predict the vibration machinery industry in the future market capacity, so as to have a full understanding of the future development of vibration industry.

钢铁行业进入21世纪，随着世界经济的复苏和我国进入重化工业阶段，在国内外市场强劲需求的拉动下，我国钢铁工业实现连续5年高速增长。到2006年，全年粗钢产量已突破4亿吨，树起世界钢铁发展史上新的里程碑。钢铁业的大发展也为振动机械市场提供了广阔的发展空间。

Iron and steel industry in twenty-first Century, with the recovery of the world economy and China's entry into the stage of heavy and chemical industry, strong demand in the domestic market growth, China's iron and steel industry to achieve rapid growth for 5 consecutive years. To 2006, the annual crude steel production has reached 4 tons, up new milepost on the development history of world iron and steel. The development of iron and steel industry has provided broad space for the development of vibration machinery market.

一般行业经验，生产1吨钢大概需要消耗5.28吨矿石。2005年全国产钢3.5亿吨，需要消耗18.48亿吨矿石。矿石进口量一般占40～50%，按进口50%计算需在国内采购9.24亿吨矿石。筛选1亿吨矿石需要6亿元振动机械设备，则2005年拥有振动机械设备55.44亿元，按照5年的折旧年限和10%的配件消耗比例，2006年消耗振动机械设备16.63亿元。2006年钢铁产量比2005年增加0.7亿吨，需新添设备和配件12.20亿元。因此，2006年钢铁行业的振动机械设备市场需求为28.83亿元。

General industry experience, has produced 1 tons of steel consumption of about 5.28 tons of ore to. In 2005 the national production of steel 3.5 tons, 18.48 tons of ore to consume. Ore imports generally accounts for 40 ~ 50%, according to import 50% calculations required in the domestic procurement of 9.24 tons of ore. Screening of 1 tonnes of ore needs 600000000 yuan of mechanical equipment vibration, 2005 has vibration machinery and equipment 5544000000 yuan, according to 5 years of depreciation and 10% parts consumption proportion of consumption in 2006, vibration machinery and equipment 1663000000 yuan. Steel output in 2006 than in 2005 increased by 0.7 tons, 1220000000 yuan for adding equipment and accessories. Therefore, in 2006 the steel industry's vibration machinery market demand for 2883000000 yuan.

2001～2006年，中国粗钢产量的年均增长速度为23%。由于钢铁行业固定资产投资大幅下降，预计中国钢产能增速下降，预计2007～2010年中国粗钢产量年均增长率为15%。据此计算，2007～2010年钢铁行业对振动机械设备的市场需求如下表。

From 2001 to 2006, the average annual growth rate of output of crude steel is 23% China. Due to the sharp decline in the steel industry investment in fixed assets, is expected to Chinese steel production capacity is expected to decline in the growth rate, from 2007 to 2010 China crude steel production of 15% average annual growth rate. On this basis, 2007 ~ 2010 the steel industry on the vibration machinery equipment market demand as the following table.

钢铁产量(亿吨) 4.536 5.216 6 6.9

Steel production (4.536 tons) 5.2166 6.9

振动机械设备需求（亿元） 26.146 35.078 42.35 51.26

Equipment requirements of mechanical vibration (million) 26.146 35.078 42.35 51.26

电力行业

The electric power industry

2005年全国火电装机容量为3.913亿千瓦，折算成30万千瓦火电机组1306套。据保守估计，每套30万千瓦火电机组需要1套振动机械设备。按每套振动机械设备150万元算，2005年电力工业拥有19.59亿元振动机械设备。2006年全国火电新增装机容量为0.9276亿千瓦，需配套309套30万千瓦火电机组和振动机械设备。原有设备按5年折旧，易耗配件占设备价值的比例为10%，2006年电力工业约需要新增10.51亿元振动机械设备。

2005 National thermal power installed capacity of 391300000 kilowatts, 300000 kilowatts thermal power units converted into 1306 sets. According to conservative estimates, each 300000 kilowatts thermal power units have 1 sets of mechanical equipment vibration. According to each set of equipment 1500000 vibration mechanical element calculation, the power industry in 2005 with $1959000000 in vibration machinery. In 2006 the national power of new installed capacity of 92760000 kilowatts, the need to complete the 309 sets of 300000 kilowatts of thermal power units and vibration of mechanical equipment. The original equipment by 5 years of depreciation, consumable parts of equipment value ratio is 10%, the power industry in 2006 about the need for an additional 1051000000 yuan of mechanical equipment vibration.

随着我国经济的高速增长，对电力的消费也在不断膨胀。在水电能力不足的大背景下，则只能依赖火力发电来满足电力消费，从而带动了火力发电行业的发展。2006年我国火力发电量为23573亿千瓦时，占到全年总发电量的83%，同比增长了15.3％；而截止2007年7月，我国火力发电量已达到15230亿千瓦时，是总发电量的85%。

As China's rapid economic growth, the power consumption is also in constant expansion. In the big background of hydropower capacity is insufficient, can only rely on thermal power to meet electricity consumption, thus promote the development of thermal power industry. China's thermal power capacity in 2006 to 2357300000000 kwh, accounted for the total generating capacity of 83%, an increase of 15.3%; and in 2007 July, the amount of thermal power generation in China has reached 1523000000000 kwh, is the total generating capacity of 85%.

“十一五”期间，我国将迎来电网建设的新高潮。2010年我国电力装机年均投资5000～6000多亿元；同时电网建设及改造每年投资也将达到5000～6000亿元。电力及电网投资年均在1～1.2万亿元，与2005年投资水平相比，增长近一倍。

"Eleven five" period, China will usher in a new upsurge in power grid construction. In 2010 China's power installed an annual investment of 5000 ~ about 600000000000 yuan; at the same time, power grid construction and transformation of the annual investment will reach 5000 ~ 600000000000 yuan. The power and the power grid investment annual in 1 ~ 1.2 yuan, compared with the 2005 level of investment, nearly doubled.

另据国家电网公司的统计，预计2010年我国火电装机规模将达6.4亿千瓦左右，据此预计2007～2010年电力行业中振动机械设备市场需求如下。

According to the statistics of the China State Grid Corp, is expected in 2010 China's power installed capacity will reach 640000000 kilowatts, the power industry is expected in 2007 ~ 2010 in vibration machinery equipment market.

火电装机容量（亿千瓦） 5.64 5.894 6.147 6.40

Thermal power installed capacity (GW) 5.64 5.894 6.147 6.40

振动机械设备需求（亿元） 9.216 9.801 10.38 10.97

Equipment requirements of mechanical vibration (million) 9.216 9.801 10.38 10.97

交通行业

Traffic industry

中国公路建设正处在产业的扩张期，面临着持续繁荣的契机。截至2006年底，全国二级及以上高等级公路总里程达到35.33万公里，比上年末增加1.03万公里。修筑1公里高等级公路约需要6万元的振动机械设备，所需配件按10%计算，2006年交通行业约需要6.80亿元振动机械设备。

Highway construction Chinese is in the time of industry expansion, facing the continuous prosperity. By the end of 2006, the national two level and above the highway mileage of 353300 km, an increase of 10300 km. Construction 1 km highway about vibration machinery and equipment 60000 yuan, required parts is calculated by 10% 2006, transportation industry takes about 680000000 yuan of mechanical equipment vibration.

据交通部制定的《公路水路交通“十一五”发展规划》的要求，2010年全国二级以上高等级公路总里程数将达到45万公里。

According to the Department of transportation of highway and waterway transportation development "" eleven five "development planning" requirements, in 2010 the national two level of high grade highway total mileage will reach 450000 kilometers.

随着我国工业化和城市化进程不断加快，国民经济持续快速增长，生产技术水平的不断提高，预计我国公路的修建总里程数也将快速增长，尤其是高等级公路的比重也将不断提升。据此，我们预计2007～2010年全国高等级公路里程年均增速将达到7%。按修筑1公里高等级公路需6万元的振动机械设备计算，未来四年内交通行业对振动机械设备的市场需求如下表所示。

Along with our country industrialization and city to speed up the process, the rapid growth of the national economy, the level of production technology continues to improve, the expected number of building the total mileage of highway in our country will grow rapidly, especially in high grade highway proportion will improve. Accordingly, we expect the 2007 to 2010 the average annual growth rate of high grade highway mileage will reach 7%. According to the construction of 1 km highway vibration machinery and equipment 60000 yuan calculation, the next four years traffic industry on the vibration machinery equipment market demand as shown in the following table.

高等级公路里程(万公里) 36.73 38.88 42.08 46.28

The mileage of highway (million kilometers) 36.73 38.88 42.08 46.28

振动设备需求（亿元） 9.24 14.19 21.12 27.72

The demand of vibrating equipment (million) 9.24 14.19 21.12 27.72